The Magic Number

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
-Mark Twain

We're simple folk here in the States. We like burgers, violence and rumor. We want it all served up in a blurb and we want it fast. Being simpletons, we need to pass judgment quickly. There is no time to thoughtfully analyze and debate the values and worth of an event, performance or individual. We're hooked on simple. In sports, stats are the drug of choice and we are junkies.

Baseball started the frenzy with the batting average and E.R.A. And then along came Bill James, Supergeek. He invented statistics and then reviewed every boxscore in the long history of baseball and created standards. Soon the NFL followed suit and discussions of yards after catch average, (YAC), took hold. Tennis added the first serve percentage. Golf joined in with the average length of putts holed and driving accuracy.

We know longer need a pencil and scorecard, we need spreadsheets, statisticians in the press box and algorithms. Jobs were created at the expense of the humanity of our games. Mythical icons were reduced to numbers and folks began to argue that Barry Bonds was better than Babe Ruth. Eric Dickerson was suddenly more valuable than Jim Brown and Pavel Bure superior to Mark Messier. We've quantified ourselves stupid.

All that being said there is one statistic that can determine the fate of the Atlanta Thrashers during the 2009-2010 season. There is a magic number when if met or exceeded sends our club to the postseason. But first a prelude....

Goals, goals and more goals

The Atlanta Thrashers are going to score more than their share of goals this season. I'll predict they surpass their season record for team goals. The reason is two-fold. First the obvious - the club has many weapons. IIya will get his fifty this season without breaking a sweat. He may surpass Ovechkin this year if he remains healthy. Bryan Little is poised for a 40 goal campaign. Slava, White, Armstrong, Peverley, Andropov will all hit 20 goals. And we haven't yet discussed the Blueliners. Zach Bogosian has the second best shot on the team. Enstrom is a weapon as is Ron Hainsey. Add Kubina and Salmela to the mix and the net will be dented often.

The second reason for the fireworks will be Coach Anderson's system. In a nutshell, Anderson preaches constant pressure from everyone on the ice. This system if executed correctly will wear down defenses, particularly when Thrasher D-men advance in the offensive zone. This high risk, high reward system will also yield a fair amount of shots on goal. Which brings us near the moral of our story.....

Thrasher VIP

Let's assume the Thrashers can score. Let's also assume that they will allow more than the league average in shots on goal allowed. Past performance of the Thrasher Defensemen make this assumption safe. So who does that leave?

Spotlight on Kari Lehtonen. The often brilliant, often injured, marginally motivated first round pick is the key to the 2009-2010. If he stays healthy, the Thrashers have a legitimate shot at 95 points. If he does not start 70% of the Thrashers games, this season is going to be an exercise in mediocrity. Let's face it, the combination of Hedberg, (great guy, superior teammate, dead last in Goalie ranking last year), Pavelic, (young, wild and temperamental) and Drew Macintyre aren't going to intimidate anyone.

This season falls on the shoulders and recovering back of Kari Lehtonen.

The Magic Number

So what metric will determine Blueland Joy? It's Kari Lehtonen's Goals Against Average, (GAA). Here is why:

1) It's not Save Percentage. The fact that he faces an inordinate amount of shots render the stat useless. If Lehtonen faces 40 shots a game and stops 37, his save percentage will be above average and the Thrashers will lose often.
2) You can't use wins by Lehtonen. Why? Because I said so.
3) Back-up Goalie numbers may or may not make a difference. The only reason they would matter is if they were spectacular or horrendous. Let's assume they are average.

So that's it, watch Kari's GAA. If it's at or below 2.70, the Thrashers will make the post-season. A GAA of 2.70 would have ranked 23rd in the NHL last year, a little below average. Assuming the Thrashers rank about 10th in goals next year, 2.70 will suffice.

This number seems attainable but Lehtonen's career best is 2.79. Last year he ranked 40th in the NHL with a 3.06. Lehtonen will have to have his best year in the NHL for the Thrashers to re-visit the post-season this year.

Help Wanted

I am looking for a Writer to join me at the new and improved Blueland Roar. I think another prospective in this space would make it a little more interested. Here are the requirements:

1) Be able to write an article similar in length to this one, once a week.
2) Be able to manipulate the English language deftly.
3) Have a personality and an opinion.
4) Be willing to take the same salary as I, nuthin, zero, diddy. I may throw you tickets from time to time.
5) Watch most Thrasher games either in person or on TV.

That's it. If you are interested send me a mail at grace@bluelandroar.com. My goal is to add a voice by mid-October.

Coming Attractions

The Thrasher prospects will take on the Predator newbies next Monday and Tuesday in the cozy confines of the Duluth Ice Center. I'll have a full report a week from tomorrow.

Summer is over, sharpen your skates.

Your Loyal Servant,

Sean Grace